Thursday, May 31, 2012

DTN News - ITALIAN DEFENSE NEWS: Obama Set To Arm Italy's Drones In Milestone Move

Asian Defense News: DTN News - ITALIAN DEFENSE NEWS:  Obama Set To Arm Italy's Drones In Milestone Move
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Reuters
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - May 31, 2012: President Barack Obama's administration appears set to notify the U.S. Congress of plans to arm a fleet of Italian MQ-9 Reaper drones, a step that may spur a wider spread of remotely piloted hunter-killer aircraft.

The administration could move ahead within two weeks on the proposal to let Italy join Britain in deploying U.S. drones with weapons such as laser-guided bombs and Hellfire missiles, American officials said.

Italy has a fleet of six Reapers. The sale of the technology to arm them, including bomb racks and "weaponization" kits costing up to $17 million, would help the United States redistribute the burden of its global military operations as the Pentagon's budget is being squeezed by deficit-reduction requirements.

Aides to Obama have been informally consulting the House of Representatives' and Senate's foreign affairs committees about the proposed sale to Italy since last year, congressional staff said.

The latest such period of "pre-consultations" ended May 27 without a move to block the sale, according to the Wall Street Journal, which first reported the coming formal notification to lawmakers.

A transfer to Italy would make it harder for the United States to deny armed-drone technology if asked for it by other members of the 28-country NATO alliance or by close U.S. partners such as South Korea, Japan and Australia, arms-sale analysts said.

"I think that if you sell armed drones to Italy, you will very likely make a decision that any member of NATO that wants them can also get them," said a former congressional staff member who followed the issue.

Some lawmakers fear that a decision to arm Italian drones may spur overseas sales of related technology by Israel, Russia and China.

The United States has used its MQ-9s to hunt and kill members of al Qaeda and its allies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistani tribal areas.

Britain, the first foreign country to get U.S. technology to arm its Reapers, is considered a special case. Many U.S. officials and members of Congress view it as Washington's staunchest and most reliable ally.

The State Department does not comment on proposed sales of U.S. military hardware until formal notifications have been completed. But a State Department official described Italy as a strong NATO ally which contributes significantly to coalition operations.

"The transfer of U.S. defense articles and service to allies like Italy enables us to work together more effectively to meet shared security challenges," said the official, who declined to be named.

SPREAD DRONES, OR LIMIT THEM?

Senator Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has publicly opposed the transfer of armed drones. "There are some military technologies that I believe should not be shared with other countries, regardless of how close our partnership," Feinstein, a California Democrat, said last year.

She said she would put armed drones in the category of weapons the United States should try to rein in, not spread.

Turkey is among countries that have been seeking to buy U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. The MQ-9 Reaper is larger and more capable than the earlier MQ-1 Predator, both built by General Atomics.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Chicago last week that Obama was leaning toward selling UAVs to Turkey, which has fought separatist Kurdish rebels for decades in a conflict that has killed 40,000 people.

"The administration's position (toward a sale) is favorable," Turkey's state-run Anadolu news agency quoted Gul as saying after he met Obama. "They are trying to convince Congress."

A proposed U.S. arms sale to Turkey may proceed unless lawmakers enact joint resolution barring it, an event that has never occurred.

The Obama administration says that all exports of sensitive military technology are considered on a case-by-case basis under a general policy of "restraint," taking into account national security and foreign-policy considerations as well as U.S. multilateral commitments.

Purchasers of U.S.-made military systems must agree to a strict set of "end-use" conditions designed to limit the system to approved uses such as self-defense and United Nations missions. They also must agree to let the United States monitor their adherence to these conditions.

Italy has sought to arm its drones for use in Afghanistan, where it maintains about 3,950 troops. But it initially wanted the drones themselves for such things as border patrols, the former congressional staff member said.

TEAL Group, a U.S. aerospace consultancy, estimated in April that worldwide UAV spending will almost double over the next decade, totaling more than $89 billion in the next 10 years.

(Editing by Christopher Wilson)

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources Reuters
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DTN News - INDIA DEFENSE NEWS: HAL To Make Multirole Aircraft With Russian Firm

Asian Defense News: DTN News - INDIA DEFENSE NEWS: HAL To Make Multirole Aircraft With Russian Firm

UAC-Transport Aircraft, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd (MTAL) sign contract on designing of Multimodal Transport Aircraft
Press-release of JSC "UAC-Transport Aircraft"
Bangalore, May 28, 2012
Today, JSC “UAC-Transport Aircraft”, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd (MTAL) have concluded a General contract at the HAL’s headquarters. The contract was signed by MTA Program Director Alexey Boykov, HAL Design Director Shri T Suvarna Raju and MTAL General Director N.C. Agarwal.
As of today, JSC “UAC-Transport Aircraft” has completed preparation of IT and PLM infrastructure necessary to start work of a joint group on preliminary design.
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - May 31, 2012: Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) will manufacture a Multi-role Transport Aircraft (MTA) with a Russian partner primarily for the Indian and Russian air forces, the state-run defence behemoth said Tuesday.

"The twin-engine aircraft in 15-20 tonne class will be designed, co-developed and manufactured for cargo/troop transportation; para-drop/air drop of supplies, including low altitude parachute extraction system," HAL chairman R.K. Tyagi said in a statement here.

In its transport fleet, the IAF has about 100 AN-32, including some overhauled and upgraded versions.

To execute the $600-million defence project, the $2.6-billion HAL entered into a contract here Monday with United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) of Russia and the 50:50 joint venture they have set up - Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd.

Capable of short landings and takeoffs, the aircraft will have capacity to ferry about 80 troops, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery pieces and ammunition and can be deployed for battlefield medical evacuation.

With a glass cockpit for electronic instrument displays, fly by wire controls and full authority digital engine control, the aircraft will have 800kmph cruise speed and a range of 2,500km without refuelling.

HAL will design and develop the MTA at its aircraft research and development (ARDC) centre in this tech hub, while its transport aircraft division at Kanpur in Uttar Pradesh will manufacture prototypes and commence serial production after the certification process.

"Our objective is to achieve self-reliance in design, development and production of a MTA and manage the programme with international collaboration and global suppliers," Tyagi said.

The first test flight of the prototype will be in five years (2017) and regular production two years later (2019).

HAL will also share the development cost of systems and manufacture of components, sub-assemblies and composite structure.

The tripartite contract was based on the inter-government pact signed in September 2010 by the Indian and Russian governments for joint design, development and production of the aircraft on cost sharing basis by the joint venture partners.

The joint venture will also work with Russia's aerospace major Rosoboronexport to co-develop the aircraft.

"We will showcase our expertise in designing the aircraft and its systems, manufacturing and flight testing in collaboration with our Russian partners in Moscow and India," Tyagi said.

The Kanpur facility had manufactured transport aircraft such as Avros HS-748 and Dornier Do-228 in the past for the services.

In all, the company manufactured 89 Avros from 1964 to 1984 and 116 Dorniers from 1984 to March 2012.

Two Dorniers were exported to Mauritius, while one export order to Seychelles is under execution.


MULTIROLE TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT (MTA), MEDIUM CARGO CAPACITY


Developed by: JSC United Aircraft Corporation –Transport Aircraft, Russia, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), India
Project stage: design

The Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA) is a joint international project of JSC United Aircraft Corporation –Transport Aircraft and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) of India. It is being developed within the framework of the Russo-Indian intergovernmental agreement.
The research of the world market indicates a strong demand for transport aircraft with cargo capacity of up to 20 tonnes and a flight range up to 3,000 km. According to the regulatory documents the MTA is classified as medium cargo capacity military transport aircraft designed for strategic and tactical missions. The MTA provides for transportation of a wide range of cargoes up to 12,000 kg over a range of 4,700 km and up to 20,000 kg over a range of 2,000 km around-the-clock in any geographic areas and under any climate and meteorological conditions.
As a military transport aircraft MTA can perform the following tasks:
-Military personnel transportation (up to 140 people),
-Paratroopers deployment (up to 90 people),
-Transportation of cargo, equipment, all-purpose shipping containers and aircraft containers and pallets,
-Parachuting of cargo and equipment on the platforms,
-Low altitude free fall cargo drop.
The MTA is capable to airlift up to 80% of all existing weapons and military equipment. This capacity is mainly determined by three key features: the MTA’s design dimensions, its cargo department’s size and volume, and its power plant. The MTA’s size of the airtight cargo compartment’s cross section is identical to this of the heavy Il-76MD military transport aircraft. This allows employing all existing loading and unloading equipment, transportation and air dropping equipment and tools. The MTA’s pilots and technical personnel can manage transportation tasks and execute pre-flight procedures on their own (independently from the main base airport), these tasks require from 2 to 6 people.
The high thrust-to-weight ratio ensures the MTA’s operability from airfields in high mountains (on the altitude of up to 3,300 m above the sea-level) both from paved and unpaved runways (capable to sustain pressure up to 8 kg/cm2, that allows its operations on more than 90% of the Russian airfields). The MTA’s performance also is on par with current aircraft’s fuel efficiency level.
Considering high export potential of the aircraft, its design ultimately meets the requirements not only of both Russian and Indian Air Forces but of potential customers as well. It is expected that in 2015-2020 a number of developing countries can consider the new transport aircraft as an alternative not only for An-12 and C-130 Hercules but to a smaller An-26. The strong advantage of the MTA in comparison with its rivals is its relatively low price.
It is supposed that both parties will take part in the MTA program during all its stages. At present, the conceptual phase works have been completed. The joint detailed business plan of the project has been worked out and initialed. The parties established the Russo-Indian joint venture, Multirole Transport Aircraft Limited. It is expected that the Russian and Indian sides will finance the project on par. The first flight of the MTA is planned for 2016
Related News;

GlobalSecurity.orgRussia, India Sign Multi-Role Transport Plane DealGlobalSecurity.org 15 hrs ago
...Air Force (45 planes), with the remaining 60 exported to third parties the report said. Their joint venture firm, Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd (MTAL), also signed the venture deal. The tripartite contract is based on a Russian-Indian inter-government agreement...
RIA NovostiRussia, India Sign Multi-Role Transport Plane DealRIA Novosti 30 May 2012, 16:18
...Force (45 aircraft), and with the remaining 60 exported to third parties, the report said, adding another Russian firm, Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd (MTAL), will also join the Russian-Indian venture. The tripartite contract was based on a Russian-Indian...
Russia, India Sign Multi-Role Transport Plane DealRIA Novosti 30 May 2012, 15:18
...Force (45 aircraft), and with the remaining 60 exported to third parties, the report said, adding another Russian firm, Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd (MTAL), will also join the Russian-Indian venture. The tripartite contract was based on a Russian-Indian...
Business StandardHAL in pact for multirole transport aircraft Business Standard 30 May 2012, 00:05
...— Transport Aircraft (UAC-TA), the Russian partner and their JV-Multirole Transport Aircraft Ltd (MTAL) for the Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA) project. HAL and UAC-TA have proposed to design, develop and produce the multi-role transport aircraft in the...

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), India 


IN-DEPTH COVERAGE


*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources The Economic Times
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DTN News - AFGHAN WAR NEWS: NATO Strike Kills al-Qaeda No. 2 In Afghanistan Near Pakistan Border

Asian Defense News: DTN News - AFGHAN WAR NEWS: NATO Strike Kills al-Qaeda No. 2 In Afghanistan Near Pakistan Border
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources ByStephenManual 
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - May 30, 2012: NATO claims that it has killed al-Qaeda second in command in an airstrike inside Afghanistan near the Pakistani border. According to NATO, Saudi-born al-Qaeda leader Sakhr al-Taifi was killed on Sunday in the Kunar province of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan.

It is believed that al-Taifi frequently used to travel to Pakistan and was involve in attacks on NATO troops based in Afghanistan. It is also believed that the terror kingpin would take commands from senior al-Qaeda leadership based in the tribal region of Pakistan. The semi-autonomous tribal region of Pakistan has been a hub of training camps and safe haven of terrorists for quite a long time now.

NATO officials believe that the slain terrorist had been funding and supporting terrorists based in Afghanistan to carry out attacks on the NATO troops besides giving them commands on what to do and what not. 

The officials have termed the killing of the terrorist a big success, as they believe that the backbone of the militants based in Afghanistan and the tribal region of Pakistan has been broken. Some of them even say that the killing is the second biggest victory of the NATO troops after the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
Bin Laden was shot dead in a sting operation by a team of the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad in May last year. The incident strained relations between the United States and Pakistan due to the unilateral action of the Seals. Since the US invasion in Afghanistan back in October 2001, dozens of potential terrorists and militants have been killed by the US-led coalition forces based in Afghanistan. 
It is widely held that dozens of high profile terrorists fled to the tribal region of Pakistan following the US invasion in Afghanistan and they are still living there. Despite repeated requests and pressure by the United States, Pakistan army has remained unmoved and reluctant to carry out a full-fledged military operation against militants based in the tribal region.
Analysts and observers based here in the United States believe that Pakistan’s security agencies, including Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), deem the terrorists their strategic asset and that’s why they do not launch operation against them. 
The most dreaded Haqqani network is also based in North Waziristan agency of Pakistan and is believed to be involved in attacks on NATO troops and other military installations in Afghanistan. The US has been carrying out drone strikes against the potential militants based in the region following credible intelligence information from their sources on the ground.
As the US plans to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan at the end of 2014, it is a welcome sign that top leadership of al-Qaeda is being targeted and eliminated. The US and its allies should also consider negotiating with terrorists willing to lay down arms and become civilized citizens.
StephenManual is based in New York City, New York, United States of America, and is a Reporter for Allvoices.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By StephenManual 
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DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Afghan Security Forces, ISAF Counterparts Kill Senior al-Qaida Leader

Asian Defense News: DTN News - DEFENSE NEWS: Afghan Security Forces, ISAF Counterparts Kill Senior al-Qaida Leader
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. - American Forces Press Service
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - May 29, 2012: Afghan security forces and their International Security Assistance Force partners killed a senior al-Qaida leader in Kunar province May 27, a senior Defense Department spokesman told reporters at the Pentagon today.


Click photo for screen-resolution image
Pentagon Press Secretary George Little conducts a press briefing at the Pentagon, May 29, 2012. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo 

(Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available.
“As a result of their efforts, alongside their coalition counterparts, they achieved a significant operational success in Kunar province … with the death of Sakhr al-Taifi,” Pentagon Press Secretary George Little told reporters.

Sakhr al-Taifi, al-Qaida’s second-highest leader in Afghanistan, had commanded foreign insurgents and directed attacks against coalition and Afghan security forces, Little said.
“He frequently traveled between Afghanistan and Pakistan, carrying out commands from senior al-Qaida leadership,” the press secretary said. “He also supplied weapons and equipment to insurgents in the east and managed transport of insurgent fighters into Afghanistan.”
Little said security forces identified Sakhr al-Taifi and another al-Qaida terrorist in Kunar province’s Watahpur district, and took careful steps to ensure no civilians were in the area before conducting a precision airstrike.
A follow-on assessment determined no civilians were harmed in this operation, he added.
“This operation is another example of our ongoing efforts to degrade and weaken al-Qaida’s leadership,” Little said, “and a reminder of the mission we are pursuing -- to ensure that Afghanistan, never again, becomes a safe haven for al-Qaida or its militant allies.”
However, “despite the unprecedented pressure we have applied, al-Qaida remains a threat to our forces and to our homeland,” he said. “And we will continue to pursue our goal of dismantling and ultimately defeating them.”

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr. - American Forces Press Service
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DTN News - AIRLINES NEWS: Australia-Europe Non-Stop Flights Promised By Long-Range Aircraft, But Airlines Don't See Demand

Asian Defense News: DTN News - AIRLINES NEWS: Australia-Europe Non-Stop Flights Promised By Long-Range Aircraft, But Airlines Don't See Demand
Source: DTN News - - This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources CAPA -Aviation Analysis
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - May 29, 2012: The Australian market continues to be excited by the prospect of non-stop flights between Australia and Europe as new technology aircraft arrive, but the reality is their excitement does not convert into sustainable yields, making it unlikely in the foreseeable future for such flights to be operated.

Stiff competition – European carriers have pulled out while British Airways (BA) and Qantas whittle their presence – has reduced the route to one that is fought on cost, where intermediate Asian and Middle East network carriers have an advantage. Geography also poses disadvantages: an ultra long-haul route to asingle European point would still require onward European connections, diminishing much of the advantage of the non-stop service. And while arguments continue about whether Qantas should have ordered Boeing777s instead of 787s, the reality is that the 777 would probably have been of little help in Qantas' current position.


The ultra long-haul proposition is a difficult one. For similar reasons to Qantas, Southeast Asian carriers equally have struggled with their non-stop services to America. These services are primarily point-to-point, which necessarily forgoes many of the advantages of network economics.

Retaining stops in Asia permits attracting regional traffic and, pending bilateral agreement revisions with Europe, paves the way for a new transfer hub in mainland China, bringing the associated benefits of demand from the area.

Non-stop Australia-Europe flights, typically going to London in most scenarios, have been evaluated by airlines, the most notable recent case being Qantas' consideration of Boeing 777-200LR aircraft in 2005. Qantas ruled out the aircraft in Dec-2005 because, for weather reasons, certain months of the year would not allow a full payload. Those few months were to become a blessing to Qantas. Aviation was a remarkably different and less competitive world in 2005. Emirates was not the giant it is today, Etihad was barely two years old and had yet to enter Australia and fuel could occupy only 15% of total costs.

ULTRA-LONG-HAUL POINT-TO-POINT SERVICES CONTINUE TO BE A COMMERCIAL CHALLENGE

Ultra-long-haul point-to-point flights have proved to be a global struggle. Singapore Airlines has at times cut back on its non-stop services to Los Angeles and Newark; during the GFC load factors on the all-business class service, which is operated with A340-500s, dipped below 50%. Thai Airways ended its A340-500 non-stop flights to New York in 2008 and earlier this year ended its non-stop service to Los Angeles. Delta, which at one point studied its own non-stop flights to Singapore with 777-200LRs but quickly ruled it out, and American Airlines have each ended their non-stop services to India.

Nuances abound but the common theme is one-stop competition and limited O&D demand that is further aggravated by high fuel prices, from which even hedging strategies cannot fully insulate airlines.
See related articles:
Since 2005 aircraft profiles have improved but market conditions have not for non-stop Australia-Europe services. This year's first wave of excitement came with the potential for Boeing's 777 successor to fly non-stop between Australia and Europe year-round. A second wave came recently with Airbus discussing conceptual performance for an enhanced A380.

Neither airframe is captivating carriers.
Neither airframe is captivating carriers. British Airways no longer views the market between Europe and Australia as core. At the end of Mar-2012 BA ended Bangkok-Sydney services, leaving only aSingapore-Sydney flight as part of a Europe-Australia network reduction conducted with joint service agreement partner Qantas. But even before the change, premium traffic was down considerably between the two continents. For all three months of 2012 that IATA has reported on premium traffic trends, Europe-Southwest Pacific has typically seen the sharpest declines by far: 16% in Jan-2012, 19% in Feb-2012 and 24% in Mar-2012. Without premium traffic prepared to pay an additional margin for the convenience of a non-stop, the route would struggle.

BA's pessimistic view comes with it already operating the 777, potentially making a 777 successor integration easier than at Qantas, which does not operate the 777. But even then the longest range version of the 777 successor, which could potentially operate the non-stop flights, would become a niche aircraft in BA's fleet, an undesirable position.

International premium traffic growth by route: Mar-2012
While the 777 successor would conceptually reach Sydney from Australia, an improved A380 would barely make it to Perth – and that of course is at the airframe manufacturer's best case calculation. Domestic connections from the far more populous eastern Australia would still be required and connections through Singapore, Qantas' main Asian hub, would still offer a shorter journey time. A potential service from Perth would come at the partial expense of the Singapore hub, which not only provides local traffic but also cargo. Qantas' planned premium carrier, postponed for the short term, would have provided feed for its long-haul services.
See related article: Qantas may say Malaysia Airlines negotiations are over, but many more chapters still to be written

It was on the back of network feed that Continental Airlines, now part of United Airlines, announced a 787 route to Auckland from its home hub atHouston. As CEO Jeff Smisek rhetorically asked, this ultra long-haul route was not about point-to-point traffic: "How many Kiwis live in Houston who want to fly to Auckland on a daily basis?" he asked. "Three?" United's network and that of Star Alliance, combined with the efficiency of the 787, made the route economically possible, Mr Smisek said.

...connecting traffic is limited at both ends...
Australia-Europe non-stop lacks an efficient aircraft like the 787 – Air New Zealand has referred to the 777-200LR as a "flying petrol tank" – and connecting traffic is limited at both ends. The Australian market is small, while in Europe, connections from London would require backtracking to continental Europe, reducing the time saved going non-stop to London compared to a one-stop through Asia or the Middle East. Further, following United's announcement in May-2012 to deploy its 787 between Tokyo and Denver, the new combination hinted that its proposed Houston-Auckland service no longer has its favoured position.

See related article: New Denver-Tokyo 787 service to help boost United's sagging trans-Pacific performance

QANTAS' EUROPEAN PRESENCE COMPARED TO EMIRATES, BUT THE TWO ARE ON DIFFERENT SCALES

Prior to BA and Qantas' Mar-2012 Australia-Europe restructure, Emirates typically operated approximately 22,000 one-way seats into London area airports compared to 12,000 from Qantas. Qantas' 12,000 seats were dependent on the markets of Australia and New Zealand as well as its three Asian transfer points: BangkokHong Kong and Singapore, a population pool of around 45 million.

For Emirates to fill its capacity into London, it has not only all of Qantas' markets but also additional points throughout North Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa (the traffic also obviously fills other points besides London). India alone has a population of 1.3 billion, and while travel propensity there may be low, it does indicate that Qantas was simply over-exposed to Europe. To bemoan a smaller presence in Europe from Qantas than Emirates, as has been done in the public, is a non sequitur.

QANTAS WRONGLY CRITICISED FOR LACK OF 777

Emirates has also been praised for its prolific fleet of 777s, the lack of which in the Qantas fleet has been a contention with its pilot union. The reality is that, even if Qantas had 777s prior to its 2005 examination of the -200LR, the viability of the -200LR would have been far from certain.Virgin Australia around its launch (and prior to the strategy from a new management that favours virtual flying) evaluated the -200LR to supplement its -300ER but also ruled the aircraft out for non-stop services to Europe and New York.

Qantas has rightfully defended its position against its decision to order the 777. The 777 either has not offered sufficient payload or, when it did, Qantas had already committed to other fleet strategies. "By the time the first B777-300ER was delivered in [2004] with the payload range to match Qantas B744 operations, we were already committed to the A380s. A good decision, because the A380s have a 7 per cent unit cost advantage over the 777-300ER," Qantas CEO Alan Joyce remarked in Oct-2011. Additionally, when the first -300ER was delivered, its full capability was not realised by many airlines. Indeed, at the time of delivery the -300ER had orders for 77 frames; today the figure is over 600. Not even Emirates ordered the -300ER before the first delivery, and Cathay Pacific, another -300ER proponent, would not order its first example until Dec-2005.

...the 787 is the aircraft of the future...
At that time Qantas had planned its high capacity needs – it was expecting its first A380s shortly – and was evaluating its medium-gauge widebody needs, a role ideal for the 787. "It would have been a retrograde step at that point to revert to the 777s because by then they were already an older generation of technology, where the 787 is the aircraft of the future. It has a 25% trip cost advantage over the 777-300ER," Mr Joyce said.

When remarks have been made about how Qantas should have ordered the 777, what is actually implied is the aircraft's capability. And what is meant by comments that Qantas should have ordered the 777 is that Qantas needs an efficient medium/high capacity aircraft – yet that is exactly the role the 787 will fulfill, with the early -8 variant overlapping with the 777-200ER.

Qantas was a major purchaser of the 787 – with all the bargaining economics that would have delivered – but no-one expected such a lengthy delay in deliveries. The issue of the lack of the 777 has come to a head because those 787 delays have left a gap in Qantas' fleet, but a similar issue is replicated at airlines throughout the world. Few airlines sufficiently shielded themselves from 787 delays; exceptions are a handful of carriers that ordered 767s or refurbished older aircraft. It is an understandable outcome: each delay was incremental, pushing first delivery off but never enough in one delay announcement to warrant a significant change in strategy.

CHALLENGES AT QANTAS ARE NOT FLEET CHOICES OR DESTINATIONS – BUT A CHANGED WORLD

The world has changed around Qantas and the carrier, being at the end of the line, is increasingly challenged, as is its neighbour Air New Zealand. Destinations and aircraft types are not the silver bullet to reverse these developments; whatever city or aircraft you have, your competitor can have too. Qantas is unique, not just as an end of line carrier, but for its Jetstar LCC that has captured growth in a strong market and, internationally, helped feed passengers back into Qantas' traditional market.

Another solution is to work with who you can engage partners, now the cornerstone of Virgin Australia's international strategy. The latest development is commentary from Emirates that it would be open to partnering with Qantas, but this may become controversial as oneworld, led by IAG CEO Willie Walsh, sizes up one of Emirates' competitors – likely Qatar Airways – for a partnership.
...it will still be no silver bullet...
An Emirates relationship would be a hard nosed recognition of how the world has changed in the past few years but it will still be no silver bullet.
Meanwhile, the prospect of Europe-Australia non-stops seems destined to remain a conversation piece for pilot blogs rather than a medium-term reality.

*Link for This article compiled by Roger Smith from reliable sources CAPA - Aviation Analysis
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